The Bitcoin Rally Has A Problem: Demand Is Drying Up
10 Jun 2026 · 12:00 UTC · NewsBTC RSS Feed · Original source
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Summary
Bitcoin struggles to break above $65,000 resistance after a 16% monthly decline that brought prices near $61,000. Technical analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that breaking the $65,000 level could trigger a rally toward $72,000-$74,000, but market fundamentals suggest such a move is unlikely. CryptoQuant data shows spot and perpetual futures demand has fallen to -650,000 BTC over 30 days, a reading that has appeared only three times since 2019: December 2019 (before the 2020 crash), January 2022 (before the extended bear market), and currently. Analyst Moreno emphasized that this level historically marks the beginning of difficult periods rather than market bottoms. The current setup is characterized as a "cleansing phase" rather than a confirmed reversal, with expectations for volatility followed by prolonged sideways trading with minimal participation. Van de Poppe called recent selling largely irrational, but acknowledged BTC's inability to sustainably break above the $65,000 technical level.
Why it matters
The analysis is grounded in quantifiable CryptoQuant demand metrics and historical precedent from 2019 and 2022 periods. The mechanism is straightforward: demand contraction reduces buyer support, amplifying downward price pressure. Technical resistance at $65,000 creates a psychological and technical barrier to recovery. Historical precedent shows the -650,000 BTC reading preceded 10-month bear markets (2022) and crashes (2020), lending weight to bearish projections. However, this analysis has limitations: historical patterns are not deterministic, sudden catalysts (regulatory approval, major adoption announcements, macroeconomic stabilization) could reverse sentiment abruptly. The "cleansing phase" terminology is analyst opinion rather than quantifiable data. Additional uncertainty stems from whether current conditions represent capitulation (potential bottom) or early-phase weakness. The article does not address potential black swan catalysts or mean-reversion rallies interrupting the predicted decline.
Expected impact
The article presents a bearish technical and fundamental setup for Bitcoin. The -650,000 BTC 30-day demand reading has historically preceded extended difficult phases rather than quick reversals. With Bitcoin hovering near $61,000 and facing resistance at $65,000, the article suggests limited near-term upside potential. Analyst Moreno predicts a "cleansing phase" characterized by heightened volatility followed by prolonged sideways trading with low market participation. This dynamic creates downward pressure: weak demand means fewer buyers to absorb selling, while technical resistance prevents breakout rallies. Altcoins would likely underperform significantly during such a phase, as they typically decline more sharply during periods of BTC weakness. The predicted extended sideways trading may prove more frustrating for investors than a decisive crash, as it prevents recovery attempts.