Novogratz Predicts US CLARITY Act to Pass in May, Shaping Crypto Rules
26 Apr 2026 · 11:25 UTC · Crypto Breaking News RSS Feed · Original source
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Summary
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz forecast that the US CLARITY Act, a major regulatory proposal for digital assets, appears positioned for passage in May. Speaking on the SkyBridge Capital podcast with Anthony Scaramucci, Novogratz predicted the bill would advance to committee in the first week of May and pass, potentially delivering long-awaited regulatory clarity to the crypto industry and establishing clear frameworks for digital asset classification and market operations.
Why it matters
The causal mechanism rests on removing regulatory uncertainty premiums that currently suppress institutional adoption and retail confidence. The CLARITY Act would provide definitive rules for digital asset classification, custody, and exchange operations—removing the compliance ambiguity that forces risk-averse institutions to avoid crypto. Novogratz's prediction is informed by Galaxy Digital's political connections and advocacy work, lending credibility to the timeline, though political outcomes remain inherently uncertain. Key assumptions: markets haven't fully priced May passage odds given the short 4-week window; regulatory clarity is net-positive for BTC more than diversified ALT portfolios; and US regulation carries global influence. Critical uncertainties: legislative amendments could alter framework favorability; competing geopolitical events could dominate news cycle; political scheduling delays are common. Short-term impacts (minute-daily) show lower probability because announcement timing relative to market hours and existing expectations create noise. Medium-to-long term impacts (weekly-monthly) show higher probability as information fully disseminates and market repositions based on fundamentally altered regulatory landscape. BTC-ALT differential reflects institutional capital allocation patterns toward the largest, least-regulatory-risk asset, plus macro-sentiment dominance in BTC versus project-specific factors in ALTs.
Expected impact
Passage of the US CLARITY Act would represent a major market inflection point driven by regulatory clarity reducing long-standing uncertainty premiums. Bitcoin would experience the strongest positive reaction as the institutional gateway asset, potentially attracting capital currently sidelined by regulatory concerns. Altcoins would see mixed impacts—compliant projects would benefit while those facing stricter compliance requirements might face headwinds. Near-term volatility would likely spike around committee advancement and passage votes, but stabilize once clarity becomes established fact. The tight May timeline means limited front-running opportunity, making the announcement itself a primary catalyst. Over monthly horizons, regulatory clarity would reshape competitive dynamics by establishing clear compliance frameworks, enabling institutional participation from banks and funds, and removing policy uncertainty that currently depresses valuations. The market has partially priced in this possibility but likely maintains discount for political execution risk. BTC would sustain stronger rallies than ALTs given its macro-asset status, while ALTs experience sector-specific outcomes based on individual protocol compliance profiles.