Not $60,000: Analyst Reveals The Best Time To Actually Start Buying Bitcoin
09 Jun 2026 · 13:00 UTC · NewsBTC RSS Feed · Original source
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Summary
Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader published technical analysis using the Wyckoff accumulation model, comparing Bitcoin's current structure to the 2022 bottoming pattern. He identifies five phases: Phase A stops downtrends via selling climax, Phase B allows institutional accumulation within ranges, Phase C delivers the spring (final shakeout), Phase D marks up with signs of strength, and Phase E is the breakout. The analyst believes Bitcoin is currently positioned ahead of the spring phase and projects an initial bounce to $65,000-$70,000 that will trap bullish traders before declining to $50,000 during the spring phase. The recommended dollar-cost averaging zone is $48,000-$59,000, where the analyst expects the best long-term entry opportunities. Bitcoin was trading at $62,891 at publication time.
Why it matters
The Wyckoff accumulation method is recognized by institutional traders and can create self-fulfilling behavior if market participants act on the pattern recognition. The 2022-2026 parallel draws on legitimate technical framework, though significant uncertainties remain: market conditions differ substantially (adoption levels, regulation, macro environment), timeframes for the predicted decline are ambiguous (days or weeks), and single-analyst perspective creates consensus risk. This represents one view rather than broad market consensus. External catalysts (regulatory news, adoption announcements, macro shifts) could override technical patterns entirely. If the bounce-to-drop thesis materializes, volatility would likely increase substantially as traders position for the predicted decline. Altcoins' historical sensitivity to BTC structure suggests 20-30% additional downside risk compared to Bitcoin. The key mechanism is pattern recognition becoming partially self-fulfilling through trader positioning and capitulation.
Expected impact
Analyst Merlijn The Trader's technical analysis projects a Wyckoff accumulation pattern suggesting Bitcoin will not bottom at $60,000 but instead drop to approximately $50,000 before beginning meaningful accumulation. The analysis predicts an initial bounce to $65,000-$70,000 representing a "trap" that could trap buyers before a secondary selling wave. If market participants recognize and act on this pattern, near-term resistance could develop around the predicted bounce zone, followed by significant selling pressure toward $50,000. The optimal entry window is identified as $48,000-$59,000. Altcoins would experience amplified volatility following Bitcoin's structure, with greater downside risk given sensitivity to market capitulation. The analysis introduces uncertainty into the $60,000-$70,000 price range currently viewed as support by many traders, potentially reducing confidence in near-term resistance levels.