Ethereum risks 10% decline versus Bitcoin despite record ETH staking
22 Apr 2026 · 17:19 UTC · Cointelegraph RSS Feed · Original source
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Summary
Ethereum has reached a record staking ratio of 32.33%, with over one-third of total ETH supply now locked in staking validations. This massive reduction in liquid ETH supply reduces selling pressure and could support price recovery over time. However, the article warns that ETH faces near-term downside risk of approximately 10% relative to Bitcoin. The high staking participation removes coins from active circulation, limiting the amount of ETH available for sale on markets and reducing structural selling pressure. While these positive supply-side fundamentals should theoretically support longer-term appreciation, current market conditions appear to present short-term headwinds for Ethereum's price performance against Bitcoin.
Why it matters
The primary mechanism is supply-side: as more ETH gets locked in staking (32.33% of total supply), the daily new supply hitting markets diminishes, reducing structural selling pressure. This typically supports prices through extended holding periods. However, the article suggests near-term bearish pressure (10% decline risk) despite these positive fundamentals, indicating that cyclical market sentiment currently outweighs structural support. Assumptions include: staking participation remains stable or grows, reducing circulating supply benefits compound over weeks to months, and the near-term decline reflects temporary sentiment rather than fundamental deterioration. Bitcoin's implied outperformance aligns with risk-off rotations where investors reduce altcoin exposure. Key uncertainties include: the specific catalysts driving near-term ETH weakness, whether additional staking growth accelerates the supply benefit, macroeconomic conditions affecting risk appetite, and BTC-ALT correlation dynamics. The analysis lacks explanation of which fundamental or sentiment factors are creating the 10% decline risk.
Expected impact
The article identifies a tension between Ethereum's positive supply fundamentals and near-term price weakness. The record 32.33% staking ratio structurally reduces liquid ETH supply, lowering sell pressure and theoretically supporting price recovery over medium to long timeframes. However, ETH faces a near-term risk of approximately 10% depreciation relative to Bitcoin, suggesting that current market sentiment or broader risk-off conditions override short-term support from staking benefits. Bitcoin may experience relative strength due to the comparative weakness in altcoin positioning. Over monthly timeframes, the structural benefit of reduced circulating supply could gradually support ETH appreciation as the market factors in lower selling pressure from staked positions.