BlackRock's Bitcoin Options Could Fuel New All-Time High: Expert
29 Apr 2026 · 03:00 UTC · NewsBTC RSS Feed · Original source
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Summary
Bitwise advisor Jeff Park stated at Bitcoin Conference 2026 that Bitcoin's next all-time high could be driven by options market expansion around BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), rather than spot ETF flows alone. IBIT options open interest has surpassed Deribit's for the first time, reflecting a structural shift in Bitcoin derivatives markets. The IBIT options market prices Bitcoin volatility at a five-point premium compared to offshore exchanges, attributed to different buyer composition—primarily retail investors seeking longer-duration upside exposure. IBIT options extend beyond two years, exceeding typical offshore venue duration constraints. Park theorizes that options market gamma effects could amplify upside momentum in a rising Bitcoin market. His thesis predicts Bitcoin's next significant rally will be led by IBIT options activity through reflexive dynamics tied to Bitcoin's fixed supply. At publication time, Bitcoin traded at $75,937.
Why it matters
The thesis rests on three key mechanisms: (1) Market structure migration—IBIT options surpassing Deribit OI indicates meaningful shift to US-regulated products; (2) Volatility repricing—the five-point BVIV spread suggests different risk perception, likely driven by retail demand for longer-duration exposure; (3) Gamma amplification—if dealers hedge rising call positions dynamically rather than statically, rising Bitcoin prices trigger mechanical hedging demand that further pressures prices higher. Supporting factors include Bitcoin's supply scarcity and the appeal of leveraged exposure through regulated products. Key assumptions are that IBIT volume sustains growth, retail demand persists, and dealers employ dynamic hedging. Critical uncertainties include whether IBIT volume represents true new demand or redistribution of existing demand, whether macro conditions might override options effects, and regulatory stability of US crypto derivatives. The article provides specific data (OI figures, volatility spreads), but the prediction remains fundamentally speculative and dependent on sustained market conditions and behavioral assumptions.
Expected impact
BlackRock's IBIT options could reshape Bitcoin's volatility structure by shifting options market activity from offshore Deribit-dominated venues to US-regulated products. With IBIT options open interest now exceeding Deribit's for the first time, a structural reallocation is underway. The five-point implied volatility premium of IBIT options versus offshore venues reflects demand from retail investors seeking two-year-plus upside exposure unavailable through traditional offshore options. If IBIT options volume continues expanding, options dealers hedging long call positions dynamically in a rising market could generate positive gamma effects—creating self-reinforcing upside momentum. This reflexive mechanism, combined with Bitcoin's fixed supply and growing institutional participation through regulated products, could catalyze the next all-time high in the medium term (daily to weekly timeframes). The impact would be more pronounced for Bitcoin than altcoins, though altcoins may benefit from correlated spillover if Bitcoin momentum accelerates substantially.