Bitcoin Recovery May Not Arrive Until October, Scaramucci Says
24 Apr 2026 · 10:00 UTC · NewsBTC RSS Feed · Original source
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Summary
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, stated at the Solana Policy Summit that Bitcoin may not experience meaningful recovery until October or November 2026, despite pro-crypto regulatory developments in Washington. He characterizes current weakness as part of Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle rather than structural breakdown. While ETF inflows and policy changes have attracted institutional buyers, whale selling and distribution by early holders offset this demand. Scaramucci points to whales selling around $100,000 levels, contributing to Bitcoin's decline to the $60,000s range. He emphasizes that meaningful institutional adoption requires Clarity Act passage and major banks offering competitive custody and yield services. Scaramucci discusses moving beyond partisan framing on Bitcoin strategic reserves, highlighting experimental custody programs at Bank of New York and SoFi as early adoption steps. He criticized delaying progress by pursuing perfect legislation, comparing Bitcoin's trajectory to eventual ETF approval despite regulatory opposition. At publication, Bitcoin traded at $77,844.
Why it matters
Scaramucci's prominent position in crypto finance gives his commentary meaningful weight when discussing documented market cycles. His message contradicts recent bullish sentiment from the pro-crypto administration and institutional ETF inflows, introducing significant uncertainty. The specific October timeline allows traders to model a 6-month bear scenario and adjust positions accordingly. However, impact is limited by several factors: (1) the 4-year cycle theory is widely known and likely already priced into markets; (2) this represents opinion-based analysis rather than new data or confirmed developments; (3) other prominent market participants disagree with this timeline; (4) historical precedent shows long-term price predictions often prove incorrect quickly. His mention of Clarity Act legislation and major bank adoption as future catalysts suggests potential upside catalysts remain. The reference to whale accumulation around $100,000 levels implies potential support, limiting downside assumptions. Altcoins typically amplify Bitcoin moves during bear markets due to lower liquidity and leverage.
Expected impact
Scaramucci's bearish medium-term outlook creates selling pressure while reinforcing the view that Bitcoin won't recover meaningfully until October-November. His assertion that ETF demand alone is insufficient and whale selling offsets buying pressure dampens market sentiment. The explicit messaging about a prolonged bear cycle through summer likely triggers liquidation of bullish positions and discourages new buyers expecting quicker recovery. Bitcoin faces near-term headwinds as traders process his 4-year cycle perspective. Altcoins experience spillover effects, following Bitcoin's weakness with greater magnitude given historical correlation and lower liquidity. The impact is moderated by the fact that 4-year cycle theory is already well-known in markets and represents opinion rather than new fundamental data.