Bitcoin Price Wave Down To $40,000 Shows When The Bottom Will Begin
26 Apr 2026 · 02:00 UTC · NewsBTC RSS Feed · Original source
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Summary
Crypto analyst Crypto Bullet presents a bearish Bitcoin forecast using Elliott Wave theory (WXY formation). He predicts Bitcoin will first rebound to $80,000-$85,000 before crashing to $40,000 by September-October 2026. The analysis uses price history from Bitcoin's October 2025 peak above $126,000 and February 2026 low of $60,000, along with consolidation patterns between $62,000-$78,000. In Crypto Bullet's framework, Bitcoin completed wave W at the low, is currently in wave X (the rebound phase), and will eventually enter wave Y (the final crash to $40,000). He expects this scenario to complete within five months, consistent with historical bear cycle timelines. The predicted move from $80,000 to $40,000 represents a 50% decline. Analyst Tony Severino supports this as the most likely Bitcoin scenario.
Why it matters
Elliott Wave analysis is widely followed in crypto trading but relies on subjective pattern interpretation rather than objective metrics. The source (NewsBTC) maintains reasonable credibility in crypto journalism, though the prediction itself depends on individual analyst judgment. Core assumptions: Bitcoin follows the described WXY pattern precisely, the five-month timeline is accurate, and technical levels reliably predict future price action. Key uncertainties include regulatory announcements, macroeconomic shocks, major adoption news, or black swan events that could invalidate the entire pattern. The contrast between this bearish view and concurrent bullish forecasts creates debate that increases near-term volatility. While the $40,000 target is precise, technical analysis price targets are inherently probabilistic. Greatest impact expected on weekly and monthly timeframes where multi-month patterns develop; minimal influence on intraday movements.
Expected impact
The article presents a bearish technical analysis predicting Bitcoin will first rebound to $80,000-$85,000 before crashing to $40,000 by September-October 2026, representing a 50% decline. This Elliott Wave-based analysis creates a two-phase market impact: near-term bullish sentiment on expectations of the predicted bounce, followed by bearish pressure as traders anticipate the subsequent crash. The specific price targets may become self-fulfilling prophecies if widely adopted by technical traders using similar wave analysis. Volatility could increase across daily and weekly timeframes as market participants debate the pattern's validity and position accordingly. Altcoins would likely follow Bitcoin's direction but with lower sensitivity, as they respond more to macro sentiment than individual technical patterns.