Bitcoin Price Prediction: Grayscale Says the Bottom Is In
23 Apr 2026 · 06:56 UTC · CoinCentral RSS Feed · Original source
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Summary
Grayscale Research reports that Bitcoin bottomed between $65,000 and $70,000 in February 2026. Recent on-chain data indicates new buyers accumulated near $74,000, currently near breakeven. Bitcoin has recovered to a 3-month high of $78,417 following the US-Iran ceasefire extension under the Trump administration, suggesting reduced geopolitical risk premium. The Bitcoin Bull Score Index has shifted to neutral for the first time during the current bear market cycle, indicating neither strong bullish nor bearish conviction among traders. Multiple market analysts are evaluating whether these signals indicate the start of a sustainable recovery phase or continued consolidation within a broader bear market.
Why it matters
Grayscale's authority in on-chain analysis lends credibility to the bottom call. February 2026's $65-70k range coincided with peak macro uncertainty, making it a plausible capitulation zone. The subsequent 12% recovery provides partial validation. The Trump ceasefire extension reduces geopolitical risk premium, supporting broader risk appetite. However, technical indicators turning neutral rather than bullish suggests conviction is limited. Key uncertainties: (1) whether this is a structural bottom or cyclical low within a larger bear cycle, (2) macroeconomic variables (inflation trends, Federal Reserve policy) remain volatile, (3) regulatory announcements could shift sentiment sharply. The on-chain buyer position near breakeven indicates limited margin of safety—a failed recovery attempt could trigger capitulation selling. This pattern historically supports 15-25% upside over weeks/months rather than parabolic moves, with elevated downside risk if macro conditions deteriorate.
Expected impact
Grayscale's claim that Bitcoin bottomed in February 2026 signals a potential transition from bear to recovery phase. The 12% recovery from $65-70k to the current $78.4k 3-month high validates this narrative, though the neutral shift in the Bull Score Index tempers bullish expectations. On-chain data showing recent buyers near breakeven indicates moderate institutional/smart money accumulation without euphoria. For Bitcoin, this supports measured upside continuation with resistance at current levels. For altcoins, a confirmed market bottom would trigger stronger risk-appetite rotation and capital diversification, potentially driving larger percentage gains. However, the neutral technical signal suggests the recovery is nascent rather than mature, limiting explosive moves in either direction across timeframes.